Builder-run markets on Hyperliquid list perpetual futures on the S&P 500, the Nasdaq-100 and single stocks. They trade 24/7; the real market does not. When the bell rings, the perp is pulled back to the real price — so if overnight moves are driven by thin books and crypto sentiment, they should partly reverse.
−0.03correlation, weeknight move vs next 2 hours
+0.04correlation, weekend move vs next 2 hours
+4 bpsbest fade rule, net (t = 0.25)
| Correlation | Fade big moves, net of costs | |
|---|---|---|
| Weeknights | −0.03 | +4 bps (t = 0.25) |
| Weekends | +0.04 | −9 bps (t = −0.23) |
The off-hours price is anchored — most likely by market makers hedging with index futures, which trade almost around the clock.
Overnight drift
Stocks famously earn much of their return overnight. Here: +6 bps per weeknight on average, below the roughly 10 bps of trading costs.