Three free sources with long daily histories, each tested as a filter on the BTC trend rule over a period that includes the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
2018–20222023–2026
Trend alone0.96
1.50
1.50
Avoid euphoria (Fear & Greed)0.61
1.66
1.66
Liquidity tailwind (stablecoins)1.25
0.95
0.95
No retail mania (Wikipedia views)0.89
1.39
1.39
Two useful by-products
- The trend rule itself held over 8.5 years, roughly doubling buy-and-hold’s risk-adjusted return in 2018–2022 — the strongest confirmation of trend + carry.
- Euphoria is not a sell signal. The days with the most Bitcoin attention were followed by higher returns, not lower:
Quietest fifth+1.0%
Second+1.5%
Middle+2.0%
Fourth+4.0%
Busiest fifth+11.5%
Attention spikes signal momentum, not tops.